Background on the "Much Ado About a Very Few" Advertisement

Prepared by:
Judy Xanthopoulos, Ph.D.
Quantria Strategies, LLC
1825 I Street, NW Suite 400
Washington, 20006

State-by-state figures

Estimates of the numbers of estate tax returns are for illustrative purposes only. These estimates were prepared to demonstrate that the number of returns decreases as the exemption level (unified credit amount) increases.

These estimates are not intended for technical economic analysis, but merely for demonstrating the effects of present law estate tax provisions.

The limitations of such estimates reflect the uncertainty in projecting demographic trends and valuation of asset portfolios. In any given year, it is difficult to predict who may die or how many. Further, it is also difficult to project the value of a given estate and the composition of assets in the estate at the time of death.

However, while the methodology employed is simplistic, it does (1) reflect the available information, both current and historical trends; and (2) allow for detailed analysis that should not distort observed trends

The SOI provides state-by-state data on estate tax returns filed for a given year on their website as well as the larger aggregate tables. The state data only provides the gross estate, state tax credits, and net estate tax (dollars and returns). The aggregate file provides the distributions by size of the estate.

The distribution of estates was analyzed using aggregate data files for the past eight years. The distributions remain stable in both the composition of assets by estate size as well as the distribution of estates within each category. It is assumed that, in general, over time, most states reflected the aggregate figures and these distributions were applied to the states figures.

Distributions of estates within each category rely on simple estimates of skew, based on mean values of the gross estate. As stated, these calculations represent only estimates of likely distributions and are not intended for quantitative research or other detailed analysis of estate tax returns.

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